Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
